Bananas

33.3 rows of bananas ||. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . || 100 / 3 = 33.3 100 / 1.5 = 66.6 33.3 x 66.6 = 2218
 * || 100m (trees 1.5m apart)   66.6 columns of bananas  ||
 * 100m (rows 3m apart)
 * Calculations for 1 ha (10 000m2)**

Plantation D 2218 x 35.6 = 78 960

Plantation A 2218 x 9 = 19 962 Plantation B 2218 x 12.4 = 27 503 Plantation C 2218 x 1.2 = 2 662 Plantation E 2218 x 48.6 = 107 795 Port 2218 x 2.5 = 5545 Total 78 960 + 19 962 + 27 503 + 2 662 + 107 795 + 5 545 = 242 427
 * Other plantations**

** Banana Bunchy Top Virus ** ** What is the Virus? ** Banana Bunchy Top Virus is an extremely dangerous and devastating virus with enormous consequences (OISAT, n.d.). Therefore, immediate action must take place to avoid its spread to neighbouring plantations. If not, within 150 days, the entire banana plantation on our settlement can be threatened and completely affected. Currently, there is no cure for the virus and it can be difficult to eradicate, however the virus can be controlled and managed with quick action and careful management (OISAT, n.d.). Bananas are vital to our settlement. They not only provide us with food but also generate an important source of income.
 * **Factorial equation** || **Affected banana plants** || **Time total (days)** ||
 * 1 x 1 || 1 || 0 ||
 * 1 x 1 x 2 || 2 || 20 ||
 * 1 x 1 x 2 x 3 || 6 || 40 ||
 * 1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 || 24 || 60 ||
 * 1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 || 120 || 80 ||
 * 1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 || 720 || 100 ||
 * 1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 || 5 040 || 120 ||
 * 1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 || 40 320 || 140 ||
 * 1 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 x 9 || 362 880 || 160 ||

(A kaua'i, n.d.) (Pacific Basin, 2010)
 * What does an infected plant look like? **

A banana tree infected by the virus has dark green like spots on the petioles as well as the veins and midribs of newly emerging leaves. On mature plants infected by the virus, any new leaves that emerge do so with difficulty. The leaves are also smaller than normal sized plants (Banana Bunch Top Virus, 1997). As the disease progresses the leaves of the tree become smaller until only the stunted leaves remain, producing a “bunchy top”. Once the tree is infected, it is unable to produce any fruit (OISAT, n.d.).

(Banana Bunchy Top Virus Hawii, n.d.) Banana bunchy top virus is spread by the aphid vector, // (Pentalonia nigronervosa) //, which acquires the virus after at least four (but usually about 18) hours of feeding on an infected plant. The aphid can retain the virus throughout its adult life, which is a period of 15–20 days. During this time, the aphid can transmit the virus to a healthy banana plant by feeding on it (Viruses Genomes, n.d.). Furthermore, people can also spread the virus. This occurs through the transportation of infected materials and plants to another plantation/place. The symptoms of an infected plant usually do not show until about a month after being infected (Banana Bunch Top Virus, 1997).
 * How is it spread? **

It is extremely important that every settlement on the island is notified of the virus to minimise its potential risk to the entire island. This will help to contain the virus and prevent the virus from being accidently transported to another plantation. An early warning will ensure all preventative measures be implemented to help contain the disease. If only one plantation is affected, then the island will still be able to export bananas and keep its main source of income.
 * Who needs to be warned? **

It is very important that good communication exists between settlements. The internet is crucial to this happening. Settlements can ‘skype’ other settlements to let them know if they have detected Banana Bunchy virus on their plantation. Radios are another quick means of communication between plantations. Communication needs to take place as soon as possible to prevent accidental spread by people. Once neighbouring settlements have been notified, carefully checks on their own plantation for signs of the disease can begin and any infected materials can be removed and destroyed.
 * How are we going to notify other settlements? **

To control the virus, you must kill the disease carrier, which are the aphids as well as destroying all infected plants, and all plants in close proximity. By killing the aphids on affected banana plants, it reduces further spread to healthy banana plants. This technique is also effective in slowing down the speed of the virus. In addition, it also limits the chance of people transporting the virus through infected plant materials (Banana Bunchy top virus, 1997).
 * What to do when a plant is infected **

Additional ways to help control the virus include the use of soapy water sprays and approved pesticides. This method is usually relatively non-toxic to people, birds and other animals. Soapy water and pesticides are sprayed where the aphids are most likely to be hiding such as under leaf sheath (Banana Bunchy Top Virus Information & Control, (n.d).

(some little bugs, n.d.) (EPOW, Ecology Picture of the week, n.d.) (Pest Control, n.d.) Banana Bunchy Top virus can also be controlled through non-chemical means by introducing natural predators into the environment. Natural predators of the aphid include insects such as ladybirds, hoverflies, earwigs and lacewings. They can work together to help maintain a low population of the aphid. Lastly, if the infection is severe chemicals can be sprayed to destroy the aphids. However, these chemicals will kill all insects and animals in the area (OISAT, n.d.). After removing an infected plant, it is imperative to destroy all plant matter, including roots and any suckers. It is essential surrounding plants are also removed and destroyed, even if they appear healthy, as symptoms of the disease do not show for around one month. Once the plant is removed, it must be either burnt or buried in landfill. Replanting in this area should not occur for at least 45 days ( Banana Bunchy Top Virus Information & Control, n.d. ).


 * With the environment in mind, how should the settlement tackle the virus? **

As it is very important to stop the spread of the virus, immediate action must take place. All infected plants must to be removed and burnt, as well as all plants that may be at risk of infection. Although burning plants may be an environmental risk, it will eliminate the virus from spreading to neighbouring settlements. This is especially important as a chopped up plants will still enable aphids to fly away and further infect healthy plants. ( Banana Bunchy Top Virus Information & Control, n.d. ). Any remaining trees must be washed down thoroughly with soapy water. Natural predators should also be introduced in large numbers to help keep down the aphid population. Finally, regular checking of plants such as fortnightly should occur to check for diseased symptoms ( Banana Bunchy Top Virus Information & Control, n.d. ). (Banana Bunchy Top Virus Hawii, n.d.) This aphid has wings and therefore can fly to another plant with ease.


 * What measures need to be taken to minimise the threat - i.e. how can we contain this outbreak? **


 * 1) Immediately after Banana Bunchy virus is detected, inform all settlements on the island the quickest way possible, such as radio or internet. This is a vital step in containing the virus and preventing it from spreading and infecting all banana plants on the island.
 * 2) Identify infected banana trees. Remove all infected trees from the plantation as soon as possible, as well as neighbouring trees around the infected area.
 * 3) Destroy all infected plants by either burning the infected trees or burying the infected trees in landfill.
 * 4) Spray remaining banana plants with soapy water or pesticides.
 * 5) Make sure that there is a sufficient amount of natural predators for the aphids
 * 6) As it can take about a month for the trees to show the symptoms of the virus, there is to be no transport of bananas or plant materials from our plantation to neighbouring plantations on the island.
 * 7) Do not replant in an infected area for at least 45 days.
 * 8) Every two weeks thoroughly check all plants for symptoms of the virus.


 * Economic Impact **
 * How many days will it take for the Banana Bunchy Top Virus to spread to all plantations and wipe out our banana industry?**

362 880 - 40 320 = 322 560 (total affected in last 20 days)

322 560 / 20 = 16 128 (affected each day in the last 20 days)

It would take approximately 143 days to spread throughout plantation D, which is closest to the LAADS settlement in the south.

It would take approximately 154 days to spread throughout the all islands banana plantations.


 * How much will this cost the economy?**

We assume that each tree produces one bunch weighing an average of 40kg.

78 960 x 40 = 3 158 400kg (315.84 tonnes)

For plantation D, one harvest can produce 3158.4 tonnes of bananas.

242 427 x 40 = 9 697 080 (969.71 tonnes)

One harvest of all the plantations of the island could produce 9697.1 tonnes of bananas.

9697.1 x 994 = 9 638 917.4

After 154, when BBTV has spread throughout all plantations, it would cost the economy $9.639 million, and each 8-12 months thereafter that bananas are not being produced. This would be a significant lost to the econmy, one that the Island may not be able to over come.

If the virus infects our banana crops on the island, our economy will be dramatically affected. As bananas are the main export for the island, any income that we hope to generate from them will significantly suffer. As the island is still in the process of being set up and established, many supplies still need to be imported. This will cost a lot of money to bring supplies in, therefore it is important that we can export bananas to balance this money. Without this income, vital supplies such as medical, building and agriculture supplies will be unable to come to the island. Therefore, it is vital that the virus is controlled and managed to allow our Island to be successful.

A kaua'i [Image] (n.d). Retrieved August 20, 2011 www.great-hikes.com/blog/page/5/
 * Reference List **

Banana Bunch Top Virus (1997). Retrieved August 20, 2011 from www.ctahr.hawaii.edu/oc/freepubs/pdf/PD-12.pdf

Banana Bunch Top Virus [Image] (1997). Retrieved August 20, 2011 from www.ctahr.hawaii.edu/oc/freepubs/pdf/PD-12.pdf

Banana Bunch Top Virsu Hawii [Image] (n.d.) Retrieved August 20, 2011 from www.ctahr.hawaii.edu/bbtd/closeup_photos.asp

Banana Bunchy Top Virus Information & Control, (n.d.) Retrieved August 20, 2011 from www.ctahr.hawaii.edu/bbtd/downloads/MISCbrochure.pdf

EPOW, Ecology Picture of the week [Image] (n.d.). Retrived August 20, 2011 from www.taos-telecommunity.org/epow/EPOW-Archive/archive_2006/EPOW-060501.htm

OISAT (n.d.). Retrieved August 20, 2011 from __ [|www.oisat.org/pests/diseases/viral/banana_bunchy_top_virus.html] __ Pacific Basin [Image] (2010). Retrieved August 20, 2011 from www.pbin.nbii.org/reportapest/pestlist/bbtv.htm

Pest Contol [Image] (n.d.).Retrieved August 20, 2011 www.bugstopperspest.com/pestcontrol.html Some Little Bugs [Image] (n.d.). Retrieved August 20, 2011, from www.jessiethought.wordpress.com/2011/05/20/some-little-ladybugs/

Viruses Genomes (n.d.). Banana Bunchy Top Virus. Retrieved August 20, 2011, from www.ebi.ac.uk/2can/genomes/viruses/Banana_bunchy_top_virus.html